[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION:GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 241/190

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            240/189            240/189
COMMENT: A partial halo CME was observed in the LASCO coronagraph 
images to commence at approximately 15UT on 2 Feb, however, the 
origin of this CME is unclear as there is no significant reported 
solar event which can be associated with the CME. It is therefore 
concluded that the CME is a backside event and will not be geoeffective. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   4334 3323
      Darwin              13   3333 3314
      Learmonth           15   3333 4313
      Canberra            15   3334 3323
      Hobart              17   3344 3322
      Casey(Ant)          18   5423 2323
      Davis(Ant)          18   4434 3312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3222 3422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active 
                periods. 
04 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: A sustained period of southward IMF was observed in 
the solar wind from approximately 0130-0700UT which resulted 
in active to minor storm levels of geomagnetic activity. However, 
other solar wind parameters did not exhibit the typical characteristics 
of a CME, and the source of this disturbance is therefore unkown. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions may be possible initially 
for 3 Feb in association with recent slightly elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
02 Feb   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed up to 15% at times since local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb   125    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions may be possible initially 
for 3 Feb in association with recent slightly elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:   15.6 p/cc  Temp:    47800 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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