[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.6    1444UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 243/192

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            240/189            235/185

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 2037UT 
on 31 Jan. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2310 0213
      Darwin               2   2200 0113
      Learmonth            4   3210 0113
      Canberra             3   1210 0213
      Hobart               5   2320 0213
      Casey(Ant)          21   34-- ----
      Davis(Ant)           9   3332 1223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1010 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    16    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                periods. 
02 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind parameters 
at 2037UT on 31 January and is most likely the CME associated 
with a recent disappearing solar filament. Isolated active levels 
of geomagnetic activity are possible over the next 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions possible at times for 1 
Feb in association with anticipated mild geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
31 Jan   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
02 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions possible at times for 1 
Feb in association with anticipated mild geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    42600 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060