[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flux remained at low background levels. 
A minor long duration enhancement in X-ray flux was observed 
17-22UT. The probable origin is behind the visible disk and is 
unlikely to have any geoeffective consequences. High speed solar 
wind stream effects from a large equatorial coronal hole will 
gradually decline over the next few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3333 3323
      Darwin              12   2333 3324
      Townsville          12   2333 3324
      Learmonth           12   2224 3323
      Canberra            11   2333 3223
      Hobart              12   3333 3223
      Casey(Ant)          22   4--4 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 DEC : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra           120   (Major storm)
      Hobart             134   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             37   4645 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec    20    active 
30 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
31 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed reached a peak value greater than 750 
km/s about 05 UT and has gradually declined to about 620 km/s 
at report issue. North-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has been mildly southward over the UT day, with 
decreasing polarity fluctuations. Geomagnetic activity reached 
minor storm levels at high latitudes in the first half of the 
UT day. Geomagnetic disturbance resulting from the present high 
speed coronal hole wind stream is expected to gradually decline 
over the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Fair           Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF conditions should improve as 
present coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance subsides 
over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
30 Dec   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 28-29 December. Persistent and occasionally 
intense sporadic E observed at all stations, but particularly 
at mid to high latitudes. Persistent spread F observed at Antarctic 
stations. Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity may cause 
mild ionospheric depressions, but is expected to decline over 
the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 705 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   351000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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