[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 115/66

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 29 December. The largest 
event was a B9.9 at 0205UT. The coronal hole effect is 
showing signs of decline. The solar wind speed has shown a
gradual decline from 650 km/s to 550 km/s (approx) during 
the UT day 29 December. The interplanetary magnetic field 
remained mildly southwards for most of the UT day. The solar 
activity is expected to remain low to very low during the 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Mostly quiet to 
unsettled.

Estimated Indices 29 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2233 2223
      Darwin               8   2233 2213
      Townsville           9   2233 2222
      Learmonth           11   2233 3323
      Canberra            10   2333 2223
      Hobart               9   2333 2213
      Casey(Ant)          24   --54 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              88   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19   4444 3432     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods 
			possible at high latitudes. 
31 Dec    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
01 Jan     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The solar wind speed is decreasing. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field remained mildly southward over the UT day. The 
geomagnetic disturbance resulting from the present 
high speed coronal hole wind stream is showing signs 
of decline now. The geomagnetic activity is expected 
to remain mostly at 'quiet to unsettled' levels during 
the next two days with possibility of further decline 
to 'unsettled' level on the third day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations during the next three days as the coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic disturbance subsides. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Dec   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn with
      periods of enhancements during the second half
      of the day. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec   115    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Dec   117    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Jan   120    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in the Australian/NZ region during the next 3 days 
as the coronal hole solar wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decline during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 708 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   232000 K  
Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060