[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flux has declined to very low background 
levels. The large eqatorial coronal hole is now in geoeffective 
position and high speed solar wind stream effects will continue 
today. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 27 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      29   5544 4334
      Darwin              24   5434 4335
      Townsville          26   4544 4334
      Learmonth           29   5434 5434
      Canberra            29   5544 4333
      Hobart              35   5555 4333
      Casey(Ant)          37   6--5 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 DEC : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           110   (Major storm)
      Hobart             116   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15   2224 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec    25    active 
29 Dec    25    active 
30 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 27-28 December. Solar wind speed 
reached a peak value of about 700 km/s after 13 UT and has remained 
at that level. Strong fluctuations in Bz polarity have gradually 
declined over the first half of the UT day, after which Bz remained 
moderately southward. Geomagnetic activity reached major storm 
levels at high latitudes in the first half of the UT day. Geomagnetic 
disturbance resulting from the present high speed coronal hole 
wind stream is expected to continue for at least the next day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
29 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
30 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions anticipated at mid to high latitudes 
on 28Dec due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic activty. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec   125    Enhanced 10-20% low to mid latitudes, depressed 
                5-15% high latitudes. 
29 Dec   130    Enhanced 10-20% low to mid latitudes, depressed 
                5-15% high latitudes. 
30 Dec   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 28-29 December. Persistent and occasionally 
intense sporadic E observed at all latitudes, but particularly 
in NZ/Antarctic regions. Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity 
may cause mild ionospheric depressions 28 to 29 Dec. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    66700 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060