[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: A large isolated equatorial coronal hole is now at solar 
central meridian. The first signs of a high speed wind stream 
from this feature were observed around 15UT today. The probability 
of M-class flare activity over the next few days is low. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 26 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2133 3324
      Darwin              10   2223 3324
      Townsville          11   2133 3323
      Learmonth           11   2133 3323
      Canberra            12   2133 3334
      Hobart              12   2134 3324
      Casey(Ant)          19   3-44 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   3333 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec    20    active 
28 Dec    25    active 
29 Dec    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 27-28 December. Solar wind speed 
has increased steadily after 15UT to around 500 km/s at the time 
of forecast issue. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has been predominantly southward over the latter 
part of the UT day, with brief moderate northward fluctuations. 
Geomagnetic disturbance is expected for the next few days due 
to continuing coronal hole wind stream effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
29 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions anticipated on 27-28Dec due to coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activty. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Dec   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced 5-15% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Periods of strong absorption, otherwise near predicted 
      monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec   120    Enhanced 10-20% low to mid latitudes, depressed 
                5-15% high latitudes. 
28 Dec   100    near predicted monthly values 
29 Dec   100    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 28-29 December. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity may cause mild ionospheric depressions 27 
to 29 Dec. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    96900 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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