[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: With the exception of solar region 230 (which is showing 
decline) there are currentky no solar regions of interest on 
disk. Solar wind speed declined from 540km/sec to 440km/sec over 
past 24 hours as effects of recent mass ejections ease. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward 
(5nT) for much of the UT day. A large isolated equatorial coronal 
hole is now at solar central meridian. The high speeed wind stream 
from this hole is expected 27-28 Dec. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3222 3232
      Darwin              10   3222 3232
      Townsville          10   3222 3233
      Learmonth           10   3222 3231
      Canberra            10   3222 3233
      Hobart               9   3222 3223
      Casey(Ant)          20   5--3 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18   3233 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Dec    20    Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods. 
28 Dec    20    Unsettled to active, with minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 27-28 December. Increased activity 
expected from 27-Dec due to geoeffective positioning of a large 
equatorial coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions anticipated on 27-28Dec due to coronal 
hole induced geomagnetic activty. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec   100    near predicted monthly values 
27 Dec    90    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
28 Dec    80    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 28-29 December. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity may cause mild depression response in MUFs 
late 27 to 29 Dec. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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