[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 153/108

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: Some activity on north-east and south-east limb with 
two new regions rotating into view, region 223 on north-east 
and 224 on south-east limb. 223 is possible return of 197 in 
north and 224 is possible return of 198 in south. 198 produced 
an M7 on previous rotation. 197 produced no flares previous rotation, 
however some minor subflare activity observed this morning from 
223(old 197). Some solar-radio activity on Culgoora Spectrograph 
this morning. Increasing chance of M class events, over next 
few days. Solar coronal holes are visible in the eastern and 
western solar hemispheres. The western hole is a narrow north 
polar extension and is expected to increase solar wind speed 
around 14-15 Dec. The eastern coronal hole is a south polar 
trans-equatorial hole and is not yet at geoeffective longitude. 
Solar wind conditions currently nominal. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1211 1212
      Darwin               3   2111 1112
      Townsville           3   1111 1212
      Learmonth            5   -212 1120
      Canberra             4   1221 1212
      Hobart               4   1221 1212
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Dec    12    Unsettled 
15 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions expected. A possible mild increase 
in geomagnetic activity may begin on 14-15 Dec. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes 15 Dec due 
to mild coronal hole induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Dec   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for today. Mild degradation 
possible southern region 15 Dec. Increasing chance of isolated 
shortwave fadeout activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    70100 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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