[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 152/107


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Dec             13 Dec             14 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 400km/sec over 
UT day, as coronal hole effects decline. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominately north-ward 
over the UT day. Isolated low level M class flare activity possible 
from solar region 220. SOHO EIT284 imagery shows a narrow north-polar 
extension transequatorial coronal hole just past solar central 
meridian. Solar wind speed may show some increase in around 3 
days time. However, 27 day recurrent patterns are weak for this 
hole. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 198 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 12 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1332 1122
      Darwin               7   1332 1112
      Townsville           7   1332 1112
      Learmonth            3   02-- ----
      Canberra             7   0332 1122
      Hobart               7   0332 1122
      Casey(Ant)          23   344- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions expected. A possible mild increase 
in geomagnetic activity may begin on 14-15 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Dec   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
13 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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