[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1226UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 161/115


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: Several minor C-class and one M1 level flare were observed. 
Minor mass ejections of limited radial extent and easterly directed 
were observed in LASCO imagery in association with a C5 flare 
at 0130UT and the M1 flare at 1220UT. Neither event is likely 
to be geoeffective. Region 220 is the most likely source. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 198 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 12 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1122
      Darwin               4   2211 1112
      Townsville           4   1211 1122
      Learmonth            4   2211 0123
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               5   2221 1122
      Casey(Ant)           7   ---- 222-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   3212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recent coronal hole effects have continued to decline. 
Stable magnetic conditions expected over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Persistent and occasionally intense sporadic E conditions 
observed at high latitudes and some mid latitude stations. These 
conditions may persist today as solar X-ray flux remains at slightly 
elevated background level. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Dec   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
13 Dec   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Persistent and 
occasionally intense sporadic E conditions may occur at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 576 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   180000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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