[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 167/121


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class flares possible. Solar wind 
conditins nominal over past 24 hours, with the north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field mildly northward. A mild 
increase in solar wind speed is expected 14-15 Dec due to a north 
polar extension coronal hole now in the western solar hemisphere. 
A larger south polar extension transequatorial coronal hole is 
visible in the eastern solar hemisphere. The 27 day disturbance 
pattern for this hole is much stronger and disturbed conditions 
are likely around 18 Dec. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2101 1122
      Darwin               4   2111 2123
      Townsville           3   1101 2122
      Learmonth            3   2101 1122
      Canberra             3   2101 1122
      Hobart               4   2111 1122
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec    12    Unsettled 
15 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
16 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Possible mild increase in geomagnetic activity may begin 
on 14-15 Dec due to coronal hole. Active conditions may not eventuate 
if Bz remains northward. The recurrent pattern for this hole 
is weak. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes 15 Dec due 
to mild coronal hole induced activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Dec   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% .
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25% .
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Dec   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for today. Mild degradation 
possible southern region 15 Dec. Increasing chance of isolated 
shortwave fadeout activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    82600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060