[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/SF    1859UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M1/--    1658UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 163/117


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: Several C class and three M class flares were 
observed during the UT day 28 August. Region 83 (S18W84) 
produced M1.3 at 1659UT, region 90 (S4E20) produced 
M4.6 at 1859. Another M1 was observed at 2144UT. The 
inter-planetary magnetic field remained predominantly 
northwards. The solar wind speed gradually increased 
from 400 to 500 km/s (approx). Region 87(S08W07) has 
shown some growth. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2222
      Townsville           5   2121 2223
      Learmonth            7   2222 1132
      Canberra             5   2222 1122
      Hobart               4   1211 1122
      Casey(Ant)           9   ---3 2223
      Davis(Ant)          12   33-3 223-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15   3433 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Aug   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug   142    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
30 Aug   142    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
31 Aug   142    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    97900 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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