[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/-- 28/1859UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M3/SF    1252UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            155/109
COMMENT: Several C class and three M class flares were 
observed during the UT day 29 August. Region 95 (N07E76) 
produced M3.2 at 1252UT. Region 85(S08W50), which 
produced a C4.5 flare at 1039UT/29Aug, is growing. 
Region 87 (S08W20) is decaying. The inter-planetary 
magnetic field remained predominantly northwards. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 500 
to 450 km/s (approx). 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: 
Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3122 3322
      Townsville           6   2111 2322
      Learmonth            9   3121 3322
      Canberra             6   2111 2322
      Hobart               7   2111 3322
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-33 33--
      Davis(Ant)          13   3332 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 
indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for 
that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3322 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug   142    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
31 Aug   142    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
01 Sep   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  
Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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