[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 161/115


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3223
      Townsville          10   3223 3223
      Learmonth            9   2223 3223
      Canberra             8   2222 3223
      Hobart               8   2222 3223
      Casey(Ant)          14   4333 2323
      Davis(Ant)          16   4443 2224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3323 4533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    12    Unsettled 
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be normal to good at all latitudes 
over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
29 Aug   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
30 Aug   135    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be normal to good at all latitudes 
over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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