[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW**   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF 25/2346UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SF    0103UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105

A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1046UT on 
26 Aug. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 26 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   2333 3533
      Townsville          18   2224 3533
      Learmonth           16   2223 3533
      Canberra            15   1223 3533
      Hobart              12   1223 3432
      Casey(Ant)          17   2433 3433
      Davis(Ant)          19   2443 3433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   2222 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Aug    12    Unsettled 
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 23 August and 
is current for interval 24-27 August. The shock detected in the 
solar wind was the result of recent flare/CME activity. A minor 
storm period followed. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return 
to mostly quiet to unsettled levels over the next few days. 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1131UT on 26 Aug, and a weak (30nT) impulse was observed at 
1530UT on 26 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0140UT 24/08, Ended at 1315UT 26/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should return to normal at high latitudes 
with the end of the recent PCA event. HF conditions should be 
normal to good at all latitudes over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Aug   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted montly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted montly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted montly values to enhanced.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-10%. 
28 Aug   150    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
29 Aug   150    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 25 August 
and is current for interval 25-27 August (SWFs) . HF conditions 
should return to normal at high latitudes with the end of the 
recent PCA event. HF conditions should be normal to good at all 
latitudes over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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