[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1853UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 179/132


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            160/114            155/109




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2332 2112
      Townsville           5   1221 2---
      Learmonth            6   2221 2---
      Canberra             3   1221 1002
      Hobart               3   1221 1001
      Casey(Ant)          14   3443 2122
      Davis(Ant)           9   3332 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary             11   3222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug    25    Unsettled with possible active and minor storm 
                periods. 
27 Aug    20    active 
28 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 23 August and 
is current for interval 24-27 August. Recent flare/CME activity 
observed during the past couple of days is expected to produce 
active and possible minor storm periods for the next couple of 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 08 2002 0140UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)          
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be degraded at high latitudes 
for 26 August due to a PCA event. HF conditions may be slightly 
degraded for 26-27 August due to anticipated increased geomagnetic 
activity over the next couple of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10-15%. 
27 Aug   125    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-10%. 
28 Aug   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 25 August 
and is current for interval 25-27 August (SWFs) . HF conditions 
are expected to be degraded at high latitudes for 26 August due 
to a PCA event. HF conditions may be slightly degraded for 26-27 
August due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity over 
the next couple of days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    61700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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