[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X3.5    0112UT  probable   all    West Pacific
  M2.0    0549UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.6    1129UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 196/148


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133
COMMENT: The enhanced proton flux is associated with the X3-flare 
observed at 0112UT on 24 August. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   3222 1112
      Townsville           4   3211 1012
      Learmonth            2   2001 1101
      Canberra             3   3111 1001
      Hobart               3   2111 1101
      Casey(Ant)           9   2333 1122
      Davis(Ant)          12   3333 22-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   2322 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
26 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
27 Aug    25    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 23 August and 
is current for interval 24-27 August. Continued flare/CME activity 
observed during the past couple of days is expected to produce 
active to minor storm periods for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 08 2002 0140UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)          
26 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)-fair     
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be degraded at high latitudes 
for 25 August due to a PCA event. HF conditions may be slightly 
degraded for 26-27 August due to anticipated increased geomagnetic 
activity over the next few days. SWF's possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted montly values to slightly enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted montly values to slightly enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug   135    Enhanced 15% to near predicted monthly values. 
26 Aug   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5-10%. 
27 Aug   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5-10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be degraded at high latitudes 
for 25 August due to a PCA event. HF conditions may be slightly 
degraded for 26-27 August due to anticipated increased geomagnetic 
activity over the next few days. SWF's possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    89200 K  Bz:   7 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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