[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.4    0140UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.6    0257UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.4    0826UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    2114UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 228/178


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            220/170            220/170
COMMENT: Most of the flare activity cam from large solar region 
69. The flares were moslty impulsive events. Solar region 69 
remains large and still has potential for M and X class flare 
activity, however, Big Bear Observatory Bear Alert Service reports 
that mixed magnetic polarity areas are weakening. Solar region 
79 also has flare potential. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was mildly northward until 
a small discontinuity at around 1320UT, then mildly southward. 
A weak shock from a recent Type II event may arrive today. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 57 is due for return to 
the south-east limb around 22 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2222 2333
      Townsville           7   2221 2234
      Learmonth           11   3321 2333
      Canberra             8   2222 2233
      Hobart               7   2222 1233
      Casey(Ant)           9   2322 1332
      Davis(Ant)          18   3-43 24-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             27   4454 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    16    active 
22 Aug    16    active 
23 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Active periods possible 21 Aug, due to possible weak 
impulse, and currently southward IMF.  Mild activity probable 22-23 Aug 
due to coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event. Proton flux levels remain enhanced, 
now starting to decline.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT:Mild degradation at high latitudes expected next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug   159

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Some Spread and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 18 August 
and is current for interval 19-21 August (SWFs) . Fadeouts can 
be expected on daylight HF circuits. Stronger MUfs observed in 
association with increased solar flux from active solar regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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