[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.2    1034UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    1446UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M3.4    2102UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 237/187


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            240/189            230/180
COMMENT: Solar region 69 remains large and still has potential for 
M and X class flare activity. Solar region 79 to the south-east 
of region 69 is showing growth and also has flare potential. 
Solar wind speed over past 24 hours has declined from 600 to 
500km/sec, following recent shock arrival.The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward 10nT 00-08 
UT, then turning mildly northward. A south-polar extension finger 
shaped coronal hole is approaching the solar central meridian. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3434 3235
      Townsville          17   3434 3234
      Learmonth           17   3334 3245
      Canberra            15   3334 3234
      Hobart              15   3343 3234
      Casey(Ant)          23   4544 3234
      Davis(Ant)          30   45-5 33-6
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 AUG : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            52   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   4323 3245     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    12    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
22 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods probable 20 Aug, due to recent M2 TypeII 
event. Mild activity probable 22-23 Aug due to coronal hole. 
A possible weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1145UT on 19 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event. However 10MeV proton flux remains elevated.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderate degradation observed first half of UT day. 
Proton flux remains elevated but below event threshold, possibly 
increasing absorption on polar HF links. Further fadeouts can 
be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 18 August 
and is current for interval 19-21 August (SWFs) . Fadeouts can 
be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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