[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/1B    0534UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 220/170


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            215/165            215/165



Previously M-flare(s) producing region 57 is due for return to 
the south-east limb around 22 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   4443 3234
      Townsville          21   4443 4334
      Learmonth           19   4443 3234
      Canberra            19   3453 3224
      Hobart              19   3453 3224
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2123
      Davis(Ant)          17   4334 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        34
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23   4423 2455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug    16    Unsettled with possible active and minor storm 
                periods. 
23 Aug    12    Unsettled 
24 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Minor storm periods were observed on 21 August due to 
a sustained period of mildly southward IMF. The most likely cause 
of the southward IMF is the recent flare/CME activity from region 
69. Mostly unsettled to active periods are expected for 22 August. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded at high latitudes for 21 
August due to the sustained period of southward IMF and increased 
geomagnetic activity in that region. HF conditions are likely 
to be mildly degraded for high latitudes for 22 August, while 
low-mid latitudes should be mostly normal. SWF's possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Normal to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Normal to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted monthly
      values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Aug   135    about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded at high latitudes for 21 
August due to the sustained period of southward IMF and increased 
geomagnetic activity in that region. HF conditions are likely 
to be mildly degraded for high latitudes for 22 August, while 
low-mid latitudes should be mostly normal. SWF's possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    20300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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