[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 184/137


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143
COMMENT: New region 69 near east-limb, just south of centre of 
the solar disk is largest and most complex on disk, likely to 
produce M class events. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 3222
      Darwin              11   2333 3223
      Townsville          13   2334 3223
      Learmonth           11   2333 3222
      Canberra            13   2334 3222
      Hobart              12   2334 3121
      Casey(Ant)          15   3443 21--
      Davis(Ant)          20   3543 323-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   2324 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
14 Aug    11    Unsettled 
15 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be 
experienced during day 1 of the forecast period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. Fadeouts probable.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 90% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Increasing chance of shortwave fadeouts on daylight 
HF circuits. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    72000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060