[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1904UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 192/144


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            195/147
COMMENT: Region 69 produced the M1.8 flare. This region is now 
large and magnetically complex. Further flares expected. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was 
mildly southward (10nT) for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed 
gradually declined 500-440km/sec as coronal hole effects reduce. 
Some non-geoeffective CME activity observed behind the south-east 
and possible north-east limb of the sun at aorund 03UT and 12UT 
respectively.  Previously flaring solar regions 39 and 44 are due 
back to the south-east limb 17-18 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3322 1122
      Darwin               7   2322 1221
      Townsville           7   3312 1123
      Learmonth            7   2322 1122
      Canberra             7   2322 1122
      Hobart               7   2322 1122
      Casey(Ant)          11   3432 1121
      Davis(Ant)          21   44-4 324-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   3334 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug    11    Unsettled 
15 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMENT:Mild degradation observed at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
15 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
16 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 13 August 
and is current for interval 13-15 August (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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