[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            185/138
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remians at 450km/sec (coronal hole). 
Background xray flux has gradually ramped up over past 24 hours. 
Isolated low level M class flaring possible. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   1323 4323
      Darwin               9   1322 3323
      Townsville          11   1223 4323
      Learmonth           11   1223 4323
      Canberra            11   0223 4323
      Hobart              11   0223 4322
      Casey(Ant)          13   1432 33--
      Davis(Ant)          19   2444 4323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   4522 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
14 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: One isolated active period observed. Isolated active 
periods may also be experienced on day 2 of forecast due to solar 
filament eruption. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Some absorption and spread observed at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
13 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
14 Aug   125    about 10% below predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    73100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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