[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind speed appears now to have steadied at 450km/sec. 
in association with coronal hole effects. A solar filament disappeared 
from north of the centre of the solar disk overnight. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3322 2123
      Darwin               9   3322 2223
      Townsville           9   3422 2113
      Learmonth            8   3322 2212
      Canberra            10   3422 3012
      Hobart               9   2422 3112
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 22--
      Davis(Ant)          17   3344 2-33
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 AUG : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   2222 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: One isolated active period observed. Isolated active 
periods may also be experienced on day 3 of forecast due to solar 
filament eruption. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible for mid to high latitudes 
on day 3 of forecast period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
12 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
13 Aug   125    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   100000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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