[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0126UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 2111
      Darwin               5   2221 2112
      Townsville           4   2111 2112
      Learmonth            3   2111 2011
      Canberra             2   1110 1100
      Hobart               1   1110 1001
      Casey(Ant)           4   2211 2100
      Davis(Ant)           7   2232 21--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   3312 2331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    12    Unsettled 
09 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Aug     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: There is the chance of possible active periods for the 
next couple of days, otherwise conditions should be mostly quiet 
to unsettled. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days, with the chance of SWF's. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug   105    near predicted monthly values 
09 Aug   105    near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug   105    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days, with the chance of SWF's. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060