[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 9 09:15:51 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind speed showed mild increase toward end of
UT day, probably a weak corona hole signature. Bz also flucuated
sothward 10nT toward end of UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1112
Darwin 4 1111 1223
Townsville 3 1011 1123
Learmonth 3 1110 1122
Canberra 2 1100 2112
Hobart 1 0100 2102
Casey(Ant) 3 1221 0111
Davis(Ant) 5 1321 11--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 2322 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 12 Unsettled
10 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
11 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible day 2 of forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Some spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 105 near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 105 near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next
few days, with the chance of SWF's.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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