[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 7 09:53:15 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 05/2122UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Region 57(S08W66) is still the most dominant region
on the disk. This region produced three C-class flares (C8.3
at 0144UT, C4.3 at 1131UT and C7.6 at 1527UT) on 06 August.
Region 61(N09E41) produced two C-class flares (C2.8 at 1212UT
and C3.3 at 1231UT).Region 63(N17E73) produced one C7.9 flare
at 1259UT and two more isolated C-class flares were observed
on 06 August. Solar activity may be expected to remain at
moderate levels for the next 2 days. The effect of the passing
coronal hole may strengthen the solar wind stream during the
next 3 days. The solar wind speed remained slightly above
400km/s during the first half of the UT day 06 August and then
slowly decreased to approximately 380km/s. The inter-planetary
magnetic field remained slightly but mostly northwards on 06
August. A partial halo CME observed at 1925/06August on the
southern limb, could not be associated with any other event
and does not seem to be earth directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 2210 1011
Darwin 4 2211 1111
Townsville 3 2210 1012
Learmonth 2 2100 1011
Canberra 1 1200 1001
Hobart 2 2200 0001
Casey(Ant) 7 3331 0011
Davis(Ant) 5 3-21 10-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 2221 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 13 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
08 Aug 15 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
09 Aug 12 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: The solar wind speed gradually decreased from
approximately 410 to 380 km/s during the second half of
UT day 06 August, after remaining slightly above 400 km/s
during the first half of the day. The interplanetary
magnetic field remained slightly but mostly northwards
on 06 August. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to
remain mostly at unsettled levels with possiblity of
going upto active levels on 07 and 08 August due to
coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be
observed on high latitudes on 7-8 August. Periods of
short wave fadeouts may be expected during the next
3 days mainly due to expected activities on regions
63(N17E73) and region 57(S08W66).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 105 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
08 Aug 105 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
09 Aug 107 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations may be observed in
the southern Australian regions during 7-8 August as the
geo-magnetic activity is expected to show slight increase
due to coronal hole activity. Short wave fadeouts may be
observed during the next 3 days mainly due to expected
activities on region 63(N17E73) and region 57(S08W66).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 64700 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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