[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 02

Fri Apr 12 09:18:54 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 197/149

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            195/147
COMMENT: Minor proton enhancement observed after 18UT. Solar 
wind speeds became elevated ranging from 300 to around 500km/sec. 
The ACE solar wind speed profile possibly suggests we entered a 
moderately higher speed stream early in the UT day. There was an 
apparent small discontinuity at around 0030UT, then speeds gradually
rose. A candidate coronal hole on disk 3-4 days ago could not be found. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field has 
occassionally been fluctuating mildly southward (5nT). A type II 
sweep was reported in association with a C9 flare at 1626UT on 
11 April. Reported mass ejection appears not to be earth directed.  
M class flare activity expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3333 2212
      Townsville           9   2233 2313
      Learmonth            9   3223 2223
      Canberra             7   2223 2212
      Hobart               6   2222 2212
      Casey(Ant)          16   4433 22--
      Davis(Ant)          13   3333 3312

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   1013 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr    18    Active, chance of minor storm 
13 Apr    18    Active, chance of minor storm 
14 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 10 April and 
is current for interval 12-13 April. Mild to moderate CME related 
activity expected 12-13 April. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event, proton flux mildly elevated at 1pfu after
17UT 11 Apr.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitiude HF conditions expected to be degraded 
12-13 Apr. Increased absorption may be experienced on some higher 
latitude HF circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
11 Apr   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by up to 50% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr   160    enhanced 15-25%/chance depressed 10-15% later in day. 
13 Apr   120    mild depressed 10-15%/enhanced 10-15% 
14 Apr   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 11 April 
and is current for interval 13-14 April. Forecast ionospheric 
response to forecast geomagnetic activity softened. Good HF conditions 
initially expected today. Degraded conditions expected during 
from second half of 12 Apr. Effects expected to be mild and confined 
to southern Aus/NZ region due to currently strong MUFs, and weak 
CME signature. Forecast adjusted as MUFs are currently running 
strong in Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    42100 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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