[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 02

Thu Apr 11 09:35:15 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M8.2/1N    1231UT  probable   lower  European
M1.6/1N    1907UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 194/146

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            185/138
COMMENT: The M8 flare event appears to have an impulsive profile 
above about the C9 level. Background xray flux before the flare 
was around C1. The flare had a slow decline below the C9 level. 
There is a chance for a weak proton enhancement over the next 
12 hours. The flare originated from solar region 9893 N15W14. 
A type II radio sweep and partial-halo mass ejection were reported 
with this event. A weak shock is expected from this event late 12 
Apr to first half 13 Apr. ACE EPAM precursor data shows an upturn 
in flux, which may imply a mass ejection is en-route, possibly 
from the earlier M2/TypeII event, which was biased eastward. Solar 
wind speed has been around 310km/sec, with Bz mildy northward 
for most of the day. Two other solar regions show some magnetic 
complexity and further M class activity is expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1221 1212
      Townsville           4   1111 1221
      Learmonth            4   1220 ---2
      Canberra             3   0111 1212
      Hobart               2   0111 1111
      Casey(Ant)           8   1330 ----
      Davis(Ant)           6   1231 1---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   2011 2332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Apr    18    Active, chance of minor storm 
13 Apr    18    Active, chance of minor storm 
COMMENT: Weak to moderate CME related activity expected 12-13 April. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event, chance for mild enhancement of proton
flux.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: High latitiude HF codnitions expecte dto be degraded 
12-13 Apr. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
10 Apr   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr   155    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Apr   120    enhanced 10-15%/depressed 10-15%. 
13 Apr   100    depressed 10-15% to near normal. 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today. Degraded condityions 
expected during interval 12-13 Apr. Chance for mild depression, 
local day on 13 Apr. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    52600 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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