[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2B    0042UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/--    1302UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 205/156

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            185/138
COMMENT: Type II radio sweep observed at 0042UT on 9 April. CME 
activity observed during April 9 does not appear to be Earthward 
directed. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2210 0001
      Townsville           1   2110 0001
      Learmonth            1   2100 0002
      Canberra             0   1010 0001
      Hobart               1   1110 0001
      Casey(Ant)           4   2321 0000
      Davis(Ant)           4   2320 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1011 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr     6    Quiet 
11 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: CME activity observed during April 9 does not appear 
to be Earthward directed and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to persist for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
09 Apr   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    81500 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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