[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1310UT  possible   lower  European
  M4.3    1804UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 212/163

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            210/161            205/156
COMMENT: M4 event was from region 9901 at N21W26 and was associated 
with a Type IV radio sweep. However, a CME could not be seen 
in LASCO difference images by 22UT follwoing flare event. Further 
M class activity expected from this region. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3223
      Townsville          11   3233 3223
      Learmonth           13   4233 3222
      Canberra            11   3333 3113
      Hobart              10   3233 3113
      Casey(Ant)          15   4343 320-
      Davis(Ant)          14   3342 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              65   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   2123 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    18    active 
14 Apr    16    active 
15 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 10 April and 
is current for interval 12-13 April. Active periods remain expected 
from recent CME activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation remains possible next day or two. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
12 Apr   162

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
15 Apr   130    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 11 April 
and is current for interval 13-14 April. Anticipated geomagnetic 
activity has yet to eventuate. Enhanced MUFs now expected for 
today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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