[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.1    1532UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.4    1048UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 216/166

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            210/161
COMMENT: Type II radio sweep observed at 0439UT on 4 April. Recent 
CME activity does not appear to be Earthward directed. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 2112
      Townsville           5   2222 2001
      Learmonth            5   2222 2011
      Canberra             4   1222 2001
      Hobart               5   1222 211-
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 10--
      Davis(Ant)           9   2333 2213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   3433 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr     6    Quiet 
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recent CME activity does not appear to be Earthward 
directed and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to persist for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
04 Apr   158

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
06 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
07 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 592 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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