[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 209/160

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   208/159            208/159            205/156


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9866 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 4 Apr. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3343 2222
      Townsville          10   3333 1122
      Learmonth           11   3333 2222
      Canberra             9   2333 2122
      Hobart               9   2333 2122
      Casey(Ant)          13   3343 2222
      Davis(Ant)          25   3554 2243
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            78   (Active)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   2444 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr    10    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Apr     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
03 Apr   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
05 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
06 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 667 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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