[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 217/167

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            210/161            205/156



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 1002
      Townsville           2   1110 1112
      Learmonth            1   2100 0011
      Canberra             1   1100 1002
      Hobart               1   1100 1001
      Casey(Ant)           8   2332 20--
      Davis(Ant)          NA   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2123 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recent CME activity does not appear to be Earthward 
directed and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to persist for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 Apr   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
07 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
08 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    81800 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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