[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 27 09:28:52 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0258UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 283/237
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 280/233 275/227 275/227
COMMENT: Two solar regions in south west quadrant have M and
X class flare potential. The ACE satellite data remains affected
by proton event associated with the recent geoeffective X2 flare/CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 23 6344 1224
Darwin 19 5344 1224
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 23 6344 1224
Canberra 18 5344 0223
Hobart 25 6444 0223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 SEP :
Darwin 70 (Active)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 127 (Severe storm)
Hobart 185 (Severe storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 1221 1256
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Sep 12 Unsettled
29 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 25 September
and is current for interval 26-27 September. Geomagnetic storm
activity was confined to early in the UT, and rapidly declined
to active levels following yesterdays impulse. Active periods
possible on 29 Sep based on recurrence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Fair-normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 09 2001 1235UT and is
in progress (declining).
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Complete absorption contonues to be observed at high
latitudes. PCA event appears to be declining. High latitude HF
conditions may improve by very late in the UT day today. Other
regions should have improving HF conditions due to rapid end
of geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Complete absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 120 near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 150 about 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep 150 about 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 25 September
and is current for interval 26-27 September. Ionosphere appears
to have had a positive response to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 98300 K Bz: 4 nT
Note:Data incorrect as proton event saturated ACE detector.
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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