[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:**RED**   ION:**RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/1N    0440UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M2/1N    1027UT  possible   lower  European
 M1/SF    0148UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 275/227

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   270/221            265/216            260/210




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 25 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2321 1166
      Darwin              18   2331 1166
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           15   2221 0166
      Canberra            16   2321 1166
      Hobart              16   1321 1166
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 SEP : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3112 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep    75    Storm levels 
27 Sep    40    Minor storm 
28 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 25 September 
and is current for interval 26-27 September. A large halo CME 
associated with a recent X2 flare impacted the Earth at approximately 
2003UT and produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic field 
for the Australian region of 55nT at 2025UT. Major storm levels 
followed and are expected to continue into 26 September. Minor 
storm levels are expected to persist into 27 September. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 09 2001 1235UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
27 Sep      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significantly degraded HF conditions have been observed 
at high lats since approximately 16UT on 24 September due to 
a PCA event and are expected to continue to be degraded for the 
next couple of days. Mid-low latitudes are expected to become 
significantly degraded for 26-27 September as the result of significant 
geomagnetic activity. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF 
circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Sep   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Significantly degraded due to PCA event.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep    70    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
27 Sep   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Sep   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 25 September 
and is current for interval 26-27 September. Significantly degraded 
HF conditions have been observed at high lats since approximately 
16UT on 24 September due to a PCA event and are expected to continue 
to be degraded for the next couple of days. Mid-low latitudes 
are expected to become significantly degraded for 26-27 September 
as the result of significant geomagnetic activity. Fadeouts can 
be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    59300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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