[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 25 10:15:48 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:**RED** ION:**RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2/2B 1038UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 279/232
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 285/239 290/246 285/239
ACE data has been contaminated by the increased flux levels
of high energy ions produced by the recent X2 flare observed
at 1039UT on 24 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 3321 1123
Darwin 7 3222 1123
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 8 4221 1122
Canberra 7 3321 1123
Hobart 7 3321 1113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 SEP :
Darwin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 114 (Major storm)
Hobart 135 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27 0354 5554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 75 Storm levels
27 Sep 40 Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 24 September
and is current for interval 24-26 September. A large halo CME
associated with an X2 flare observed at 1039UT is expected to
impact the Earth early on 26 September producing major storm
levels of geomagnetic activity. Minor storm levels are expected
to persist into 27 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 09 2001 1235UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
26 Sep Poor Poor Poor
27 Sep Fair Fair-Poor Poor
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during the
period 00-08UT for mid to high latitudes following mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity on 23 September. Significantly degraded
HF conditions have been observed at high lats since approximately
16UT on 24 September due to a PCA event and are expected to continue
to be degraded for the next few days. Mid-low latitudes should
be mostly near normal for 25 Sept but then are expected to be
significantly degraded for 26-27 September following the impact
of a large CME due early on 26 September. Fadeouts can be expected
on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
otherwise enhanced greater than 20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced greater than 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15-30% during local day otherwise
mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15-30% to near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 140 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
26 Sep 70 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
27 Sep 100 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed during the
local day for Southern Australian and New Zealand regions following
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity on 23 September. Significantly
degraded HF conditions have been observed at high lats since
approximately 16UT on 24 September due to a PCA event and are
expected to continue to be degraded for the next few days. Mid-low
latitudes should be mostly near normal for 25 Sept but then are
expected to be significantly degraded for 26-27 September following
the impact of a large CME due early on 26 September. Fadeouts
can be expected on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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