[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0855UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 270/221

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   265/216            260/210            260/210
COMMENT: The M1 xray event was a long duration event, with an 
unusual xray profile. Coronal mass ejection activity was observed 
to the south-west of the solar disk. The mass ejection to the 
south-west began around 07 UT and was an impressive large partial 
halo cme. However, event associations are difficult, making the 
determination of whether this was front or backside CME activity 
ambiguous. The orientation of the CME suggests it is possible 
that the CME came from from 9628, but optical on disk flare activity 
around this time is not that convincing, considering the size 
of the observed mass ejection.  
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2213 1332
      Darwin              10   3213 1332
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           10   3113 2332
      Canberra             8   1213 1332
      Hobart               9   2213 1332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 SEP : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             24   5454 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep    12    Unsettled 
29 Sep    20    Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions. 
30 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible on 29 Sep based on 
recurrence. There is a chance for increased activity on 29 Sep 
if recent south-west directed mass ejection was a front-side 
event. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 09 2001 1235UT 
	    and is in progress (declining).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair     
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions gradually improving as proton 
flux declines. There is a chance for degraded conditions on 29 
Sep. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Sep   160

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption easing second half of UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Sep   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Sep   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expected. SWFs probable. Chance 
for degraded conditions on 29 Sep local night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 281 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   1 nT
(ACE data incorrect due to detector saturation)

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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