[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 239/188

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            250/200            250/200




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1100 1002
      Darwin               3   2111 1113
      Townsville           1   1100 0011
      Learmonth            1   2000 1003
      Canberra             1   1100 1002
      Hobart               0   1100 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1112 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep     8    Quiet 
23 Sep    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
24 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 20 September 
and is current for interval 21-22 September. The CME observed 
on 18 September is no longer expected to impact the Earth, however, 
another CME observed on 20 September may produce a slight increase 
in activity on 23 September. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs likely to continue. Fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Sep   159

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Sep   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
24 Sep   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs likely to continue. Fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    28300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
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