[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 255/205

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Sep             24 Sep             25 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   260/210            265/216            270/221




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2223 3201
      Darwin               8   2223 3212
      Townsville           3   1002 2200
      Learmonth            8   3223 3102
      Canberra            10   2224 3202
      Hobart               9   2224 3101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1002 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Sep    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
24 Sep    12    Quiet to unsettled 
25 Sep    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
COMMENT: Slightly increased levels of geomagnetic activity are 
possible for 23 and 25 Sept due to recent CME activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs likely to continue. Fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Sep   171

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Sep   145    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
24 Sep   145    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
25 Sep   145    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs likely to continue. Fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    33000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
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