[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    1818UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 227/177

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            230/180            230/180




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1012
      Darwin               3   2111 1112
      Townsville           0   0001 0010
      Learmonth            5   --21 212-
      Canberra             1   0102 1002
      Hobart               2   1102 1002
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3322 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
22 Sep    15    Unsettled to active 
23 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 20 September 
and is current for interval 21-22 September. A CME observed on 
18 September is expected to impact the Earth on 21 September 
resulting in mostly unsettled to active conditions with possible 
minor storm periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed yesterday. Fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Slightly degraded conditions may be 
experienced for 21-22 September following the anticipated impact 
of the CME observed on 18 September. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Sep   164

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep   130    near predicted monthly values 
22 Sep   140    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
23 Sep   145    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 18 September 
and is current for interval 19-21 September (SWFs) . Enhanced 
MUFs observed yesterday. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Slightly degraded conditions may be experienced 
for 21-22 September following the anticipated impact of the CME 
observed on 18 September. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    65000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
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