[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 20 10:00:39 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 199/151
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 195/147
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 3411 1121
Darwin 8 3411 1122
Townsville 4 2310 0021
Learmonth 8 3312 1131
Canberra 8 3410 1121
Hobart 7 3410 1011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 SEP :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2211 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 12 Quiet to unsettled
21 Sep 20 Unsettled to active with possible minor storm
periods.
22 Sep 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: A CME observed on 18 September is expected to impact
the Earth on 21 September resulting in mostly unsettled to active
conditions with possible minor storm periods.
A weak impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0223UT
on 19 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be
expected on daylight HF circuits. Slightly degraded conditions
may be experienced for 21-22 September following the anticipated
impact of the CME observed on 18 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 157
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced greater than 20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 145 15-20% above predicted monthly values
21 Sep 120 near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 135 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 18 September
and is current for interval 19-21 September (SWFs) . Enhanced
MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight
HF circuits. Slightly degraded conditions may be experienced
for 21-22 September following the anticipated impact of the CME
observed on 18 September.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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