[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0008UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific
  M1.3    1538UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    1552UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.4    1707UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 204/155

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            195/147

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2211 1242
      Darwin               8   2211 1-43
      Townsville           3   1100 0131
      Learmonth            9   3201 2-42
      Canberra             9   2211 1342
      Hobart               8   2210 1341
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 SEP : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   1233 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep    18    active 
20 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
21 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 15 September 
and is current for interval 18-19 September. Moderately disturbed 
conditions expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm 
periods may be experienced. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Sep   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 50% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Sep   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
21 Sep   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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