[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M8.8    1550UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    2108UT  confirmed  lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.1    2147UT  confirmed  lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            200/152

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1222 1012
      Darwin               5   2222 1113
      Townsville           1   0021 0011
      Learmonth            4   2222 1002
      Canberra             5   1223 1012
      Hobart               6   0233 2012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 SEP : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2111 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep    20    active 
19 Sep    12    Unsettled 
20 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 15 September 
and is current for interval 18-19 September. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Sep   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
19 Sep   135    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Sep   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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