[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/2N    0353UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 207/158

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            195/147

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 1222
      Darwin               4   2111 1222
      Townsville           3   1010 122-
      Learmonth            5   2211 1222
      Canberra             5   1111 1322
      Hobart               5   1210 1322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 SEP : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3223 4433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Sep    20    active 
19 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 15 September 
and is current for interval 18-19 September. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Sep   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep   140    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Sep   130    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep   130    Depressed after local dawn, then recovering to 
                near predicted. 


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