[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    1128UT  possible   lower  European
 M3/-- 14/2150UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M1/1F    1559UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 219/169

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            210/161

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3223 3333
      Darwin              12   3323 2333
      Townsville           5   2112 2222
      Learmonth           12   3223 333-
      Canberra            13   3233 3332
      Hobart              12   3223 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 SEP : 
      Darwin              50   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            96   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             116   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3112 3324     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep    13    Unsettled 
17 Sep    11    Unsettled 
18 Sep    22    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 15 September 
and is current for interval 18-19 September. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Sep   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Sep   140    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values 


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