[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.9    2151UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 237/187

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            230/180            225/175

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0118UT 
on 14 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 2012
      Darwin               9   -322 3122
      Townsville           0   1000 0002
      Learmonth            8   -322 3112
      Canberra             7   3322 2012
      Hobart               6   3222 2012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 SEP : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   3454 3331     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    10    Unsettled 
16 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
17 Sep    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 
A weak impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0207UT 
on 14 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Sep   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep   140    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Sep   140    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Sep   140    about 20% above predicted monthly values 


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