[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 240/189

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            225/175            225/175

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
13/1825UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0139UT 
on 13 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2332 2213
      Darwin              11   3333 2223
      Townsville           5   1321 1213
      Learmonth            8   2322 2222
      Canberra            12   3333 2313
      Hobart              15   3442 3312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 SEP : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   2343 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
15 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
16 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Sep   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep   135    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
15 Sep   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
16 Sep   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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