[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0444UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 235/185

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            235/185            225/175
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2233 2221
      Darwin               9   2233 2221
      Townsville           7   1232 2221
      Learmonth            9   2233 2223
      Canberra            12   2343 3211
      Hobart              12   2342 3311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary              9   1001 3433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep    14    Unsettled to active 
14 Sep    12    Unsettled to active 
15 Sep    12    Unsettled 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Sep   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Ranged by -15 to 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Sep   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060