[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0241UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    1001UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.4    1516UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.0    1841UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M9.5    2045UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 236/186

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            220/170            220/170
COMMENT: Most of todays activity was from solar region 9608. 
This solar region in south-east has continued to grow and has 
become magnetically complex. In addition solar region 9607, located 
near 9608, contributed the M3.4 event to the days activity. Further 
M and X class flares likely from these regions. LASCO CME imagery 
up to 20UT shows mass ejections directed south-east (mostly non 
geoeffective). No imagery or radio sweep data was available for 
M9 event at the time of issue of this report. The xray profile 
of the M9 event was impulsive above about M1.5, then with a slow 
decline to background C3 levels. The impulsive xray profile of the 
flare tends to imply that the event may be less geoeffective. 
Geoeffectiveness of any future events should increase as
regions move toward the centre of the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1111
      Darwin               4   2112 1121
      Townsville           1   1010 0021
      Learmonth            3   2102 2101
      Canberra             4   1112 2112
      Hobart               2   1111 1101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3222 2322     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
12 Sep    18    active 
COMMENT: Chance for moderately disturbed conditions on 12 Sep 
due to M9 event. Geoffectiveness of this event probably reduced 
due to region location and xray profile. Forecast will be revised 
as more event data becomes available. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event, a weak proton enhancement may occur over
            next 24 hours.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible 12-13Sep at mid high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Sep   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Sep   110    Initially 15% enhanced, then possibly decoming 
		depressed 15% later in UT day. 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be 
expected on daylight HF circuits. Southern region Aus/NZ may 
expereience a degradation in HF conditions local night 12 Sep 
and after local dawn 13 Sep. Degradation forecast will be revised
as more M9 event data becomes available.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060